Should Abercrombie discount its wares?

The Wall Street Journal reported earlier this week that Abercrombie & Fitch is pursuing a strategy of not discounting its apparel (fashion brands targeted at young people) during the current recession (click here). The article mentions that their competitors (American Eagle Outfitters, Aeropostale, QuikSilver, Pacific Sunwear) have discounted their apparel significantly.

While competition has seen same-store sales decline by 10-11%, Abercrombie's November same-store sales fell by 28%. However Abercrombie enjoys the highest gross margins (66%) compared to competitors who have much lower margins (AEO:41%; Gap:38%; J Crew:43%, Pacific sunwear:29%). The management insists that discounting will lead to long-term erosion of brand value.

I can't help but ask myself: Should Abercrombie discount its wares?

I think there is a strong case for Abercrombie to consider pricing lower selectively. Here's why:

• Abercrombie's target population has been hit hard by the recession due to potentially reduced pocket money from parents (for younger teens) to bleaker job prospects (for recent graduates) to higher tuitions and costlier student loans (for college students). Clearly, the target customers will cut back on apparel spending, especially on premium brands.
• Abercrombie has a 66% gross margin (Yep, you read that right: their average cost of goods sold is only a third of the average price). However its fixed costs (marketing and distribution expenses) run to more than $450 MM per quarter (~54% of sales in the Nov'08 quarter). This is much higher than the comparables for most competitors.
• Assuming that marketing and distribution costs remain largely fixed, Abercrombie will make a loss if its sales decline a further 15% from Nov'08 quarter levels.
• Based on current sales and inventory numbers, Abercrombie is carrying more than 50 days of inventory. This is a fairly high level in Abercrombie's history. Inventory pile-up could force it to discount later(as winter-wear will need to be sold off before spring).
  
• Although there is a strong case for brand equity dilution, Abercrombie could consider structuring the discount selectively on products that are slow-moving. Also it can be relatively discreet about its discounts so that it does not impact brand image.

Let me know what you think....