Will Windows 8 hybrids kill laptops and ultrabooks?

Most PC companies are lining up tablets, hybrids and Touch-screen ultrabooks using the Windows 8 and Windows RT operating systems to be launched in October 2012 (click here for a Technically Personal article on the topic).

I wonder whether the Windows 8 hybrids will kill the Ultrabooks category? and what will happen to good old non-SSD laptops?

While I think that there is ample room for tablets and hybrids, I still think that Ultrabooks, non-SSD laptops, and even desktops will survive for a while. Here's why:

• Price: While few companies have given any indication of pricing, Samsung has announced a $1,199 price for the Series 7 hybrid (11.6" screen, Intel Core i7, 4 GB Ram, 128 GB SSD) and a $649 price for the Series 5 tablet (11.6" screen, Intel Atom, 2 GB Ram, 64 GB SSD). These are significantly higher  price points compared to today's Ultrabooks ($700-1000), non-SSD laptops ($200-700) and desktops (even lower). The tablet is priced lower than the current generation of high-end tablets (64 GB iPad at $699), but with bigger screen, and more memory.

• Screen size: There is a significant segment of corporate workers that do need a screen bigger than 14" for their work. I am sure 14" hybrids will eventually be announced. However I expect the price points to be much higher.

• Emergence of the touch-screen Ultrabook: HP has announced yesterday (click here) that it will be launching the Spectre XT TouchSmart (15.6" touch screen, with NFC for $1,399) and an Envy Ultrabook 4 (14" touch screen Ultrabook). This sub-category seems like a compromise between touch-screen, media-creation using keypad and large screen size. I personally don't see why many folks wanting a fixed keypad would want a high-priced touch screen. Imagine stretching out and touching the screen to consume media while the keypad is still fixed to the computer...too un-ergonomic :-(

For these reasons, I feel non-touch Ultrabooks, non-touch non-SSD laptops and the good old desktops still have ample market potential. Of course, I do expect the price war going on in non-SSD laptops and desktops to soon affect non-touch Ultrabooks... which means even better deals for consumers!

Let me know what you think!

Whither Blackberry?

Samsung and Apple are winning the war of smartphones (through different strategies...Apple through a single elegant phone built on its proprietary OS and Samsung through a rapid launch of a  slew of multiple sized devices built on Android). The chart above is taken from a recent Time article.

In the meanwhile, RIMM (and its Blackberry) are losing traction rapidly. Its share of worldwide smartphone shipments dipped from 13.6% to 6.7% in a year's time! Looks like their attempt to get the general populace into the Blackberry Boys' club has not worked.

Given that most folks replace their phone every 2-3 years, RIMM could quickly lose its installed base around the world.

What should it do now?

I suggest the following options:

1) Open up Blackberry Messenger (BBM) by tying up with Yahoo and Google so that Blackberry users can message any Yahoo Messenger and Google user (and vice-versa). BBM is still the big draw for many die-hard Blackberry fans.

2) Woo VoIP developers (such as Skype) to develop a VoIP application for Blackberry OS.

3) Figure out a way to marry BBM and Blackberry email with the Android platform. RIMM will gain access to the myriad of apps for the Android platform and Blackberry users will love RIMM for it.

4) Sell the company to any leading PC manufacturer (HP, Dell, etc) who are lusting for a position in the smartphones/ tablets space. RIMM has relationships with leading mobile carriers around the world. This is a big asset for any newcomer (or marginal player) in the smartphones business. Though this is a drastic move, RIMM is trading at just 6 times earnings and can get a good premium by selling.