Will Windows 8 hybrids kill laptops and ultrabooks?

Most PC companies are lining up tablets, hybrids and Touch-screen ultrabooks using the Windows 8 and Windows RT operating systems to be launched in October 2012 (click here for a Technically Personal article on the topic).

I wonder whether the Windows 8 hybrids will kill the Ultrabooks category? and what will happen to good old non-SSD laptops?

While I think that there is ample room for tablets and hybrids, I still think that Ultrabooks, non-SSD laptops, and even desktops will survive for a while. Here's why:

• Price: While few companies have given any indication of pricing, Samsung has announced a $1,199 price for the Series 7 hybrid (11.6" screen, Intel Core i7, 4 GB Ram, 128 GB SSD) and a $649 price for the Series 5 tablet (11.6" screen, Intel Atom, 2 GB Ram, 64 GB SSD). These are significantly higher  price points compared to today's Ultrabooks ($700-1000), non-SSD laptops ($200-700) and desktops (even lower). The tablet is priced lower than the current generation of high-end tablets (64 GB iPad at $699), but with bigger screen, and more memory.

• Screen size: There is a significant segment of corporate workers that do need a screen bigger than 14" for their work. I am sure 14" hybrids will eventually be announced. However I expect the price points to be much higher.

• Emergence of the touch-screen Ultrabook: HP has announced yesterday (click here) that it will be launching the Spectre XT TouchSmart (15.6" touch screen, with NFC for $1,399) and an Envy Ultrabook 4 (14" touch screen Ultrabook). This sub-category seems like a compromise between touch-screen, media-creation using keypad and large screen size. I personally don't see why many folks wanting a fixed keypad would want a high-priced touch screen. Imagine stretching out and touching the screen to consume media while the keypad is still fixed to the computer...too un-ergonomic :-(

For these reasons, I feel non-touch Ultrabooks, non-touch non-SSD laptops and the good old desktops still have ample market potential. Of course, I do expect the price war going on in non-SSD laptops and desktops to soon affect non-touch Ultrabooks... which means even better deals for consumers!

Let me know what you think!

Is Windows 8 doomed?

Mr Hampton of Bronte Capital published a blog article called "Changing my mind on Microsoft" .

He opines that Windows 8 will be a failure because it does not adapt to the usage behavior of different usage situations (tablet, desktop, phone):

Windows 8 was to serve a dual purpose. It was to be above all a pad operating system - one that doubled as a desktop operating system. You were going to be presented with bunch of tiles - the functional equivalent of Apple's app icons. If you used it as a pad it would have the limited functionality of a pad.

However you could take the pad, put it on a docking stand and use it with a keyboard and mouse as a desktop computer. This solves a lot of problems.

(a) it offers a distinct improvement over existing pads which are not very good for content creation. I cannot see myself editing a video on a pad or writing a blog post this long. But hey - I could with a plug-in-keyboard and mouse,

(b) it offers enterprises a chance to take their existing enterprise software and make it mobile. For example if a customer relationship system runs on Windows you could - without much further development - make it run on a Windows pad. This means there would be no incentive to redevelop it using (say) Python to run on iOS.

(c) it gets a large number of people used to the Windows system. There is a lot of human capital developed in using computer systems - trying to change - even Windows to Mac or vice-versa costs a lot of time as you work out how to say copy a file to an external hard drive or from a camera.

(d) it leads you to a world where the pad has some computing power - but if you need more grunt you connect it to a docking station in turn connected to a fast internet connection and you put the power in a cloud and rent the power out by usage. A world of semi-smart terminals - a pad if not docked, a super-computer if docked.

But the combined desktop interface has a big problem. Because desktops and pads and phones do different things they have different interfaces. A windows, icons, mouse and pull down menu interface has a venerable history because it works.

He also feels that Microsoft is losing its hold over developers:

The Microsoft virtuous circle is now dead. Two related things killed it: the rise of platform agnostic developer tools and the rise of alternative operating systems (Linux for servers, iOS and the "Big Cat" series for Apple, Android).

To my way of thinking the platform-agnostic developer tools came first - though this is a chicken-and-egg problem. The first really important platform-agnostic tool was Java. Programs written in Java run on Linux computers precisely the same way as they run on Apple computers or Microsoft computers. If you developed something on Java you could run it anywhere and you thus undermined the Microsoft virtuous circle.

Developing things for Java became widespread when people downloaded programs (applets really) from the internet. The person writing the applet had no idea what the customer computer set-up was and so had to write in a platform-agnostic fashion. Interactive Brokers for instance writes its software to run on Java - and they do this because it is a complex piece of software that has to run on many different flavours of client computer.

Over time Python developed as an even more important platform agnostic developer tool.

Nowadays nobody under thirty writes anything on Microsoft developer tools unless they are demented or brain-dead. Firstly the kids out of the colleges know the platform agnostic stuff well. Secondly when half the computers leaving factories either run iOS or Android (that is are smart-phones) nobody sensible will write in a way that does not allow easy porting to these platforms.

Microsoft's developer tools business and the customer lock it created has had a bullet through the brain. The body is lying on the floor - and most the users who have never developed anything and did not know that there even was a developers tool business have not noticed the blood-soaked victim.

I agree that Windows 8 may find a limited number of takers in the 'always-at-home' consumer market. However I feel that office goers will find good use for a product that docks to their office desktop (and can run enterprise applications), can be used as a portable for corporate presentations and can be carried on the subway ride back home to consume media. 

On the developer front, I feel that there is still a fair number of .Net programmers out there, and it is too early to call the doomsday on Microsoft.

What do you think?

Whither Blackberry?

Samsung and Apple are winning the war of smartphones (through different strategies...Apple through a single elegant phone built on its proprietary OS and Samsung through a rapid launch of a  slew of multiple sized devices built on Android). The chart above is taken from a recent Time article.

In the meanwhile, RIMM (and its Blackberry) are losing traction rapidly. Its share of worldwide smartphone shipments dipped from 13.6% to 6.7% in a year's time! Looks like their attempt to get the general populace into the Blackberry Boys' club has not worked.

Given that most folks replace their phone every 2-3 years, RIMM could quickly lose its installed base around the world.

What should it do now?

I suggest the following options:

1) Open up Blackberry Messenger (BBM) by tying up with Yahoo and Google so that Blackberry users can message any Yahoo Messenger and Google user (and vice-versa). BBM is still the big draw for many die-hard Blackberry fans.

2) Woo VoIP developers (such as Skype) to develop a VoIP application for Blackberry OS.

3) Figure out a way to marry BBM and Blackberry email with the Android platform. RIMM will gain access to the myriad of apps for the Android platform and Blackberry users will love RIMM for it.

4) Sell the company to any leading PC manufacturer (HP, Dell, etc) who are lusting for a position in the smartphones/ tablets space. RIMM has relationships with leading mobile carriers around the world. This is a big asset for any newcomer (or marginal player) in the smartphones business. Though this is a drastic move, RIMM is trading at just 6 times earnings and can get a good premium by selling.